ClimaMeter

Understanding Extreme Weather in a Changing Climate


ClimaMeter is an experimental rapid framework for understanding extreme weather events in a changing climate based on looking at similar past weather situations. Find out more here and follow us on X

🆕 Starting from December 6, 2024, our analyses integrate ERA5 data, providing coverage from 1950 with a latency of approximately 5 days and GFS forecasts, for the most recent days where ERA5 data is not yet available. This upgrade ensures more robust data retrieval; extends our historical period up to 1950, improving the research of analogues; makes it possible to perform analysis on the same day an event occurs. For more details, click here.

Heavy rain and strong winds in cyclone Zelia strengthened by human-driven climate-change

Cyclone Zelia, a Category 5 storm, brought destructive winds reaching 320 km/h and heavy rainfall to the region. The cyclone caused significant damage, including flash flooding, infrastructure destruction, and widespread disruptions. Authorities issued emergency warnings, closed schools, ports, and roads, and set up evacuation centers to assist affected residents. In addition to the immediate impacts, Cyclone Zelia disrupted operations in the Pilbara region's mining sector. Major iron ore producers such as BHP, Rio Tinto, and Fortescue paused port operations at Port Hedland, Dampier, and Cape Lambert to ensure worker safety. The storm’s rapid intensification and severe impacts highlight the increasing intensity of tropical cyclones in the region, potentially linked to climate change.

Climameter found that cyclones similar to Zelia today are up to 1 hPa deeper, up to 27 mm/day (up to 20%) wetter, and up to 5 km/h (up to 10%) windier compared to past conditions. Additionally, temperatures in affected regions are up to 2ºC colder than in the past. The study, which analyzes changes in weather patterns from 1950–2024, concludes that the extreme precipitation and wind associated with Cyclone Zelia are mostly attributable to human-induced climate change, with natural climate variability playing a minor role.

Image: MODIS Satellite

February 2025 floods in Queensland mostly exacerbated by human-driven climate change

In early February 2025, Queensland experienced severe flooding, particularly impacting the northeastern regions. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology reported that some areas received over 1,000 millimetres of rainfall, with Paluma recording more than 175mm within a three-hour period.  The Shire of Hinchinbrook, including towns like Ingham, was among the hardest-hit areas. The Herbert River reached record levels, inundating homes and businesses. In Ingham, approximately 6,700 properties lost power after the local substation was deactivated for safety reasons.  Townsville also faced significant challenges. The Ross River Dam reached 163.8% capacity, leading to the closure of the area to the public and halting traffic. Mandatory evacuations were ordered for six suburbs designated as "black zones," including Cluden, Oonoonba, Hermit Park, Railway Estate, Idalia, and Rosslea. The flooding resulted in at least one fatality and prompted mass evacuation orders in coastal regions. Emergency services conducted numerous rescues, including evacuations and assistance to individuals stranded on rooftops.

Climameter found that meteorological conditions similar to those producing Queensland Floods are up to 17 mm/day (up to 20%) wetter over the coast of Queensland. Additionally, conditions are up to 5 km/h (up to 20%) windier offshore Queensland and up to 1.5 ºC warmer in the present compared to the past. We interpret Queensland floods as an event driven by exceptional meteorological conditions whose characteristics can be ascribed to human driven climate change.

Image: Scott Radford-Chisholm/AAP Image/Reuters

Heavy precipitation and strong winds in storm Éowyn mostly strengthened by human-driven climate change

Storm Éowyn, an exceptionally powerful extratropical cyclone, struck Ireland, the Isle of Man, and the United Kingdom on January 24, 2025. Named by the UK Met Office on January 21, 2025, it was the fifth storm of the 2024–25 European windstorm season. Éowyn displayed unprecedented wind speeds, with sustained wind above 80 mph (135 km/h) and gusts reaching up to 135 mph (217 km/h) in Cairnwell, Scotland, making it comparable to a category 1 hurricane, leading to widespread red weather warnings across the affected regions. The impact of Storm Éowyn was devastating. Over 1 million people in Ireland, Northern Ireland, and Scotland were left without electricity and sustained significant property damage, including the collapse of a 100-year-old building in Hale, Manchester, and the fall of a 166-year-old Himalayan cedar at the Royal Botanic Garden Edinburgh. 

Climameter found that windstorms similar to Storm Éowyn are more intense with up to 4 hP deeper, up to 8 km/h  (10%) windier over the Atlantic coasts of Ireland and France, and up to 6 mm/day (up to 15%) wetter in the present than they would have been in the past. We interpret Storm Éowyn as an event driven by rare meteorological conditions whose characteristics can be mostly ascribed to human-driven climate change.

Image: source BBC news  

January 2025 California wildfires have been fueled by meteorological conditions strengthened by human-driven climate change

Beginning on January 7, 2025, multiple catastrophic wildfires, which are still ongoing, have impacted the Los Angeles metropolitan area and its surrounding regions. The fires were fueled by the interplay of different meteorological and hydrological conditions: very low humidity, dry conditions (with very little moisture over the past several months), and Santa Ana winds, exceeding 130-160 km/h in some places. The Santa Ana winds typically originate from cool and dry high-pressure masses in the Great Basin. The dry and powerful winds blow down the mountains towards the Pacific Coast, with gusts that can reach hurricane strength. As of January 10, the wildfires have resulted in ten casualties, damaged thousands of structures, forced nearly 180,000 residents to evacuate, and burnt around 30,000 acres.

Climameter found that meteorological conditions similar to those triggering January 2025 California wildfires are up  5°C warmer, 3 mm/day (up to 15%) drier and up to 5 km/h (up to 20%) windier in the present compared to the past, in the area interested by the fires.  We interpret  January 2025 California wildfires as an event driven by very rare meteorological conditions whose characteristics can be ascribed to human-driven climate change.

A Firefighter fights the flames from the Palisades Fire burning the Theatre Palisades on January 8th, 2025 in the Pacific Palisades neighborhood of Los Angeles. Image: source Apu Gomes/Getty Images 

Heavy Precipitations in South-Eastern Spain DANA mostly strengthened by human-driven climate change

Extreme thunderstorms associated with high-level depression (DANA, in Spanish) hit the eastern Spanish coast, leading to unprecedented rainfall, with up to 630 mm recorded in Toris, Valencia, over 24 hours. The Valencian Community bore the brunt of these catastrophic events, facing severe floods, hailstorms, and tornadoes that resulted in over 200 deaths, dozens of missing persons, and widespread devastation, especially in Valencia, Castellón, Málaga, and Albacete

We conclude that depressions similar to the DANA that cause floods in southeastern Spain are up to 7 mm/day (an increase of up to 15%) wetter over the Mediterranean coast of Spain in the present than they would have been in the past.  Additionally, conditions are up to 3°C warmer in the present compared to the past, which favors the formation of thunderstorms over the Mediterranean basin during DANA events. We interpret this DANA as an event driven by very exceptional meteorological conditions, whose characteristics can mostly be ascribed to human driven climate change. We remark that, for this event, we have low confidence in the robustness of our approach given the available climate data, as the event is  very exceptional in the data record. To ensure robustness of our findings, we have increased the statistics of analogues to include 20 similar events in past and present periods.

Image: AP photo Manu Fernandez

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