ClimaMeter
Understanding Extreme Weather in a Changing Climate
ClimaMeter is an experimental rapid framework for understanding extreme weather events in a changing climate based on looking at similar past weather situations. Find out more here and follow us on X.
ClimaMeter is an experimental rapid framework for understanding extreme weather events in a changing climate based on looking at similar past weather situations. Find out more here and follow us on X.
📢 NEW UPDATES! Enhancement and extension of our data resources
Starting from December 6, 2024, our analyses integrate ERA5 data, providing coverage from 1950 with a latency of approximately 5 days and GFS forecasts, for the most recent days where ERA5 data is not yet available. This upgrade:
✔️ ensures more robust data retrieval;
✔️ extends our historical period up to 1950, improving the research of analogues;
✔️ makes it possible to perform analysis on the same day an event occurs.
➡️ For more details, click here.
Low confidence prevents ascribing cyclone Chido intensity to human-driven climate change
Low confidence prevents ascribing cyclone Chido intensity to human-driven climate change
Cyclone Chido, an intense tropical cyclone in the 2024-2025 South-West Indian Ocean season, caused catastrophic damage in Mayotte and severe disruptions in the Comoros, with winds exceeding 200 km/h destroying precarious housing and leaving the island in devastation. Preliminary reports indicated at least 14 deaths and 250 injuries, but officials warned the toll could be significantly higher, particularly in shantytowns where undocumented residents lived. Rescue operations were hindered by challenging communication, cultural burial practices, and limited administrative processes, as French authorities launched an emergency response to address the crisis.
Cyclone Chido, an intense tropical cyclone in the 2024-2025 South-West Indian Ocean season, caused catastrophic damage in Mayotte and severe disruptions in the Comoros, with winds exceeding 200 km/h destroying precarious housing and leaving the island in devastation. Preliminary reports indicated at least 14 deaths and 250 injuries, but officials warned the toll could be significantly higher, particularly in shantytowns where undocumented residents lived. Rescue operations were hindered by challenging communication, cultural burial practices, and limited administrative processes, as French authorities launched an emergency response to address the crisis.
ClimaMeter concludes that low-pressure systems making landfall in Comoros and Mayotte, such as Cyclone Chido, generally display precipitation and wind patterns similar to past events. However, with the influence of anthropogenic climate change, the warmer environment (+1.5°C) in which these systems develop can enhance both their intensity and rainfall potential. Given the exceptionality of the cyclone and the lack of similar events in our dataset, we cannot disentangle the influence of natural variability in driving the cyclone trajectory.
ClimaMeter concludes that low-pressure systems making landfall in Comoros and Mayotte, such as Cyclone Chido, generally display precipitation and wind patterns similar to past events. However, with the influence of anthropogenic climate change, the warmer environment (+1.5°C) in which these systems develop can enhance both their intensity and rainfall potential. Given the exceptionality of the cyclone and the lack of similar events in our dataset, we cannot disentangle the influence of natural variability in driving the cyclone trajectory.
Heavy precipitation and strong winds in storm Darragh locally strengthened by human-driven climate change
Heavy precipitation and strong winds in storm Darragh locally strengthened by human-driven climate change
Storm Darragh, the fourth named storm of the 2024-2025 season, struck Ireland and the UK on December 6-7, 2024, bringing hurricane-force winds exceeding 160 km/h and heavy rainfall. The storm caused widespread power outages, affecting nearly 400,000 homes in Ireland and 130,000 households in the UK, along with significant transportation disruptions. The Met Office issued rare red weather warnings, highlighting the storm's potential for structural damage and danger to life.
Storm Darragh, the fourth named storm of the 2024-2025 season, struck Ireland and the UK on December 6-7, 2024, bringing hurricane-force winds exceeding 160 km/h and heavy rainfall. The storm caused widespread power outages, affecting nearly 400,000 homes in Ireland and 130,000 households in the UK, along with significant transportation disruptions. The Met Office issued rare red weather warnings, highlighting the storm's potential for structural damage and danger to life.
ClimaMeter found that that windstorms similar to Storm Darragh are more intense with up to 2 hP deeper, up to 4 km/h (5%) windier over the Atlantic coasts of Ireland and France, and up to 5mm/day ( up to 10%) wetter in the present than they would have been in the past. We interpret Storm Darragh as an event driven by very exceptional meteorological conditions whose characteristics can be ascribed to human driven climate change.
ClimaMeter found that that windstorms similar to Storm Darragh are more intense with up to 2 hP deeper, up to 4 km/h (5%) windier over the Atlantic coasts of Ireland and France, and up to 5mm/day ( up to 10%) wetter in the present than they would have been in the past. We interpret Storm Darragh as an event driven by very exceptional meteorological conditions whose characteristics can be ascribed to human driven climate change.
Waves crash against the harbour wall at Porthcawl in south Wales during Storm Darragh. Photograph: Matthew Horwood/Getty Images
Heavy Precipitations in South-Eastern Spain DANA mostly strengthened by human-driven climate change
Heavy Precipitations in South-Eastern Spain DANA mostly strengthened by human-driven climate change
Extreme thunderstorms associated with high-level depression (DANA, in Spanish) hit the eastern Spanish coast, leading to unprecedented rainfall, with up to 630 mm recorded in Toris, Valencia, over 24 hours. The Valencian Community bore the brunt of these catastrophic events, facing severe floods, hailstorms, and tornadoes that resulted in over 200 deaths, dozens of missing persons, and widespread devastation, especially in Valencia, Castellón, Málaga, and Albacete
Extreme thunderstorms associated with high-level depression (DANA, in Spanish) hit the eastern Spanish coast, leading to unprecedented rainfall, with up to 630 mm recorded in Toris, Valencia, over 24 hours. The Valencian Community bore the brunt of these catastrophic events, facing severe floods, hailstorms, and tornadoes that resulted in over 200 deaths, dozens of missing persons, and widespread devastation, especially in Valencia, Castellón, Málaga, and Albacete
we conclude that depressions similar to the DANA that cause floods in southeastern Spain are up to 7 mm/day (an increase of up to 15%) wetter over the Mediterranean coast of Spain in the present than they would have been in the past. Additionally, conditions are up to 3°C warmer in the present compared to the past, which favors the formation of thunderstorms over the Mediterranean basin during DANA events. We interpret this DANA as an event driven by very exceptional meteorological conditions, whose characteristics can mostly be ascribed to human driven climate change. We remark that, for this event, we have low confidence in the robustness of our approach given the available climate data, as the event is very exceptional in the data record. To ensure robustness of our findings, we have increased the statistics of analogues to include 20 similar events in past and present periods.
we conclude that depressions similar to the DANA that cause floods in southeastern Spain are up to 7 mm/day (an increase of up to 15%) wetter over the Mediterranean coast of Spain in the present than they would have been in the past. Additionally, conditions are up to 3°C warmer in the present compared to the past, which favors the formation of thunderstorms over the Mediterranean basin during DANA events. We interpret this DANA as an event driven by very exceptional meteorological conditions, whose characteristics can mostly be ascribed to human driven climate change. We remark that, for this event, we have low confidence in the robustness of our approach given the available climate data, as the event is very exceptional in the data record. To ensure robustness of our findings, we have increased the statistics of analogues to include 20 similar events in past and present periods.
Other Recent Extreme Events
Other Recent Extreme Events
