ClimaMeter
Understanding Extreme Weather in a Changing Climate
ClimaMeter is an experimental rapid framework for understanding extreme weather events in a changing climate based on looking at similar past weather situations. Find out more here and follow us on BlueSky .
🆕 Starting from December 6, 2024, our analyses integrate ERA5 data, providing coverage from 1950 with a latency of approximately 5 days and GFS forecasts, for the most recent days where ERA5 data is not yet available. This upgrade ensures more robust data retrieval; extends our historical period up to 1950, improving the research of analogues; makes it possible to perform analysis on the same day an event occurs. For more details, click here.
Heavy rain in March 2025 Argentina floods mostly strengthened by human-driven climate change
The catastrophic floods in Bahía Blanca on March 7, 2025, were primarily caused by an unprecedented and intense rainfall event. Within a span of approximately eight hours, the city received over 400 millimeters (15.7 inches) of rain, which is equivalent to its average annual precipitation. This deluge led to severe flash flooding, resulting in loss of life (16 deaths registered already and more than 150 people still missing three days after the event), significant infrastructure damage, including the destruction of bridges and the collapse of asphalt roads. The rapid accumulation of water overwhelmed the city's drainage systems, causing widespread inundation of homes, hospitals, and streets. In addition to this, according to medical experts, the spread of diseases could be expected as a forthcoming consequence.
Climameter found that meteorological conditions leading to the March 2025 Argentina floods are locally wetter by up to 4 mm/day (7%), in the present compared to the past. We interpret the March 2025 Argentina floods as an event driven by exceptional meteorological conditions whose characteristics can mostly be ascribed to human driven climate change.
People row kayaks on flooded streets in the city of Bahia Blanca, Buenos Aires, Argentina, March 9, 2025. REUTERS/Juan Sebastian Lobos
Heavy rain in Cyclone Alfred locally intensified by human-driven climate change
Tropical Cyclone Alfred, a Category 2 storm, is currently approaching the southeast coast of Queensland, Australia, expecting to make landfall near Brisbane by Saturday 8 March in the morning. As of March 6, 2025, Alfred is moving westward at 12 km/h, with sustained winds near the center of 100 km/h and wind gusts up to 130 km/h. The cyclone has already brought destructive winds and heavy rainfall in many parts of eastern Australia.
Climameter found that Cyclones similar to Alfred are up to 1 hPa shallower, locally wetter by up to 7 mm/day (10%), and have wind speeds reduced by up to 5 km/h (-10%) in the present compared to the past. They also contribute to locally colder conditions over the Australian continent, with temperatures dropping by up to 1°C. We interpret Cyclone Alfred as an event driven by very exceptional meteorological conditions whose characteristics can be ascribed to human driven climate change.
